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replace point pred with bootstrap mean #102

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merged 3 commits into from
Sep 9, 2024
Merged

replace point pred with bootstrap mean #102

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a29606d
replace point pred
lennybronner Sep 5, 2024
dbefa05
had to fix up B_2 also
lennybronner Sep 6, 2024
919a08c
ran linter
lennybronner Sep 6, 2024
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6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions src/elexmodel/models/BootstrapElectionModel.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -968,7 +968,6 @@ def compute_bootstrap_errors(
z_test_pred = (ols_z.predict(x_test) + (aggregate_indicator_test @ epsilon_z_hat)).clip(
min=z_partial_reporting_lower, max=z_partial_reporting_upper
)
yz_test_pred = y_test_pred * z_test_pred

# we now need to generate our bootstrapped "true" quantities (in order to subtract the
# bootstrapped estimates from these quantities to get an estimate for our error)
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1017,10 +1016,11 @@ def compute_bootstrap_errors(
min=z_partial_reporting_lower, max=z_partial_reporting_upper
) * weights_test

# the point prediction is the bootstrap sample mean
# this is for the unit point prediction. turn into unnormalized margin
self.weighted_yz_test_pred = yz_test_pred * weights_test
self.weighted_yz_test_pred = yz_test_pred_B.mean(axis=1).reshape(-1, 1) * weights_test
# and turn into turnout estimate
self.weighted_z_test_pred = z_test_pred * weights_test
self.weighted_z_test_pred = z_test_pred_B.mean(axis=1).reshape(-1, 1) * weights_test
self.ran_bootstrap = True

def get_unit_predictions(
Expand Down
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