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ELEX-3298 experiment with dropping units whose turnout factors are outliers #110

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@dmnapolitano dmnapolitano commented Sep 30, 2024

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Hi! The changes in this PR remove the turnout_factor_lower and turnout_factor_upper thresholds in favor of outlier detection. The mean and standard deviation of turnout_factor is determined per state then used to identify outliers via the mean ± (standard deviation * 4.75). This z has been selected so as to minimize the changes to the unit test results, race call times, and predictions. See the notebook here for more details on performance evaluation against the 2022 US Senate GE 🎉 Thanks!!

Jira Ticket

ELEX-3298

Test Steps

tox, elexmodel commands with non-modeled units, test bed, etc.

…nto ELEX-3298-experiment-with-dropping-units-whose-turnout-factors-are-outliers
…r() unit test to remind myself why the mean and std are being computed twice
…nto ELEX-3298-experiment-with-dropping-units-whose-turnout-factors-are-outliers
…nto ELEX-3298-experiment-with-dropping-units-whose-turnout-factors-are-outliers
…nto ELEX-3298-experiment-with-dropping-units-whose-turnout-factors-are-outliers
…nto ELEX-3298-experiment-with-dropping-units-whose-turnout-factors-are-outliers
@dmnapolitano dmnapolitano requested a review from a team as a code owner September 30, 2024 18:25
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