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Crewed Mars Program #2422

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Crewed Mars Program #2422

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CXG-2827
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@CXG-2827 CXG-2827 commented Aug 13, 2024

A Crewed Mars Program which unlocks after the completion of the Crewed Lunar Program, Mars rover contract, and the 2nd Generation Science contract (includes the 2yr space habitation experiment).

Program Contract Structure:
The idea is to allow the program to be complete one of two ways.

Option1: Crewed Mars Landing

  • Mars orbit.
  • Mars crewed landing with a surface stay of a specified duration.
  • Collection of Mars Surface samples, and Deep Surface Samples.

Option2: Similar to Project Red Rocks/Mars Base Camp

  • Mars Orbit
  • Robotic mission to Mars to send back up a surface sample to take back home.
  • A crewed mission to Phobos for collection of Surface samples, and Deep Surface Samples.

Phobos crewed landing will be an optional choice if the crewed Mars landing contract is chosen, but will not allow double-dipping if Option2 path is taken. Deimos Crewed Landing contract will be an optional.

Funding and Timeline:

  • Program funding on Moderate difficulty is $40M. Normal is $48M, and Hard is $32M.
  • 6 Program slots required. Plan for admin to be at 11-12 slots when this is accepted
  • Timelines: Normal: 18 Years, Fast: 12 years, Breakneck 9 years
  • Pricing modeled around moderate difficulty with mission architecture placing 2,000T to LEO and the construction of a 5k-7kT LC with a second pad. Assuming a design using propulsive capture and chemical propulsion.
  • Assumption of 3,600 researchers and 5,000 engineers.
  • Researchers account for ~$2.3M/yr
  • Net cost is estimated to be ~$2.9M/yr with maxed out subsidy
  • New LC will be at roughly half engineering capacity and roll out crafts in ~80 days for non-crew rated payloads.

@siimav
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siimav commented Aug 19, 2024

In case you haven't noticed yet - the cfg validator found some errors.

@CXG-2827
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In case you haven't noticed yet - the cfg validator found some errors.

Thanks. found the missing brackets.

@CXG-2827
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Sharing my thoughts on the funding and timeline for this program.

Facilities and staffing in the post-moon landing era will need $3.5M/year just to stay afloat. Ballpark estimates for launching the Mars mission is based on 9x200T uncrewed payloads and 1x200T crewed payload/habitat totaling $3.5-4M accounting for engineering and rollout. Building a new LC and extra pad will be another $2.5M. I would think at this stage of a playthrough, the player should have 12 slots in the admin building to allow for 2 additional programs to be running concurrent with the Crewed Mars program. Assume $400k/year from the additional programs are contributing to the facilities and staffing budget, and $1.2M/year of maximum subsidy contributing to the researchers salaries.

To run the program on fast, you will need to begin construction on the new LC during the first year, as it will take ~3.75 years to complete. After the LC is complete, it will take another 2 years to construct and launch the 10 payloads, putting you at the end of the 6th program year. With 6 years remaining, it gives flexibility with missing a launch window and having enough time for the 2-2.5yr mission.
image

the current front-loaded curve will need for you to bank almost $6M by the 4th year, as you will be operating in the negatives for the remainder of the program.

image

Regarding the funding curve, if having such a large aggressive funding peak goes against simulating a slower post-Apollo era, then I believe Fast will need to be stretched to 20 years, budget changed to ~$50M, and use a Mid or flat funding curve. With Crewed Lunar being a 12 year program, maybe 14 years for Mars is a bit short.

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CXG-2827 commented Oct 1, 2024

Contracts have been tested in sims and a test save. I've checked the pricing against my current Mars design and increased funding a bit. Cost to launch the Mars mission estimated closer to $6.5M. From a spending estimate 12 years still works ok, but has a slightly shorted buffer for the mars window to complete and hit the program deadline. Build period for the infrastructure is now about 5 years on the Mid curve.
marsspend1

marsspend2

@CXG-2827 CXG-2827 marked this pull request as ready for review October 1, 2024 21:43
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