diff --git a/docs/posts/dr-dfm-covid/presentation-post.html b/docs/posts/dr-dfm-covid/presentation-post.html index 2a57bda..7b05c61 100644 --- a/docs/posts/dr-dfm-covid/presentation-post.html +++ b/docs/posts/dr-dfm-covid/presentation-post.html @@ -136,10 +136,7 @@

On this page

  • Visualizing the Model
  • Latent Factors and Observed Variables
  • Extending the Model with Time Dynamics
  • -
  • Interpreting Transition Matrices -
  • +
  • Interpreting Transition Matrices
  • Factor Constraints: Enhancing Model Interpretability
  • Our Python Package: Modeling and Analysis @@ -267,26 +264,24 @@

    Ext

    Interpreting Transition Matrices

    -

    Examining the first transition matrix

    +

    First Transition Matrix

    • The diagonal elements (0.8 and 0.7) are relatively high, indicating a strong persistence of each latent factor over time.
    • The off-diagonal elements (0.2 and 0.3) suggest moderate influence of one latent factor on the other, allowing for some interaction between the two factors.
    • Summary: latent factors have a tendency to persist, with some interdependence.
    -
    -

    Examining the second transition matrix

    +

    Second Transition Matrix

    • The diagonal elements (0.5 and 0.4) are lower compared to Transition Matrix 1, suggesting less persistence of each latent factor over time.
    • The off-diagonal elements (0.5 and 0.6) indicate a relatively stronger influence of one latent factor on the other compared to Transition Matrix 1.
    • Summary: latent factors are less likely to persist and may be influenced more by each other, allowing for a more dynamic and responsive behavior.
    -

    Factor Constraints: Enhancing Model Interpretability

    By applying constraints to the model parameters, we can improve interpretability and reduce complexity while incorporating prior domain knowledge about variable relationships.

    diff --git a/posts/dr-dfm-covid/index.qmd b/posts/dr-dfm-covid/index.qmd index 2bd28bc..a96a760 100644 --- a/posts/dr-dfm-covid/index.qmd +++ b/posts/dr-dfm-covid/index.qmd @@ -136,8 +136,6 @@ $\eta_t$: Innovation term ## Interpreting Transition Matrices -Examining the first transition matrix - ```{python} #| echo: false import numpy as np @@ -170,12 +168,15 @@ plt.tight_layout() plt.show() ``` +**First Transition Matrix** + - The diagonal elements (0.8 and 0.7) are relatively high, indicating a strong persistence of each latent factor over time. - The off-diagonal elements (0.2 and 0.3) suggest moderate influence of one latent factor on the other, allowing for some interaction between the two factors. - Summary: latent factors have a tendency to persist, with some interdependence. -### Examining the second transition matrix +**Second Transition Matrix** + - The diagonal elements (0.5 and 0.4) are lower compared to Transition Matrix 1, suggesting less persistence of each latent factor over time. - The off-diagonal elements (0.5 and 0.6) indicate a relatively stronger influence of one latent factor on the other compared to Transition Matrix 1. - Summary: latent factors are less likely to persist and may be influenced more by each other, allowing for a more dynamic and responsive behavior.